Two Recent Risk Assessment Studies
Two studies that discuss risk assessments for adolescents and pre-adolescents.
The discussions within each study describes the various risk assessment tools with this complex and vulnerable population. Both are well worth looking through.
Prentky, R.A., Li, N-C., Righthand, S. Schuler, A., Cavanaugh, D., & Lee, A.F. (2010). Assessing risk of sexually abusive behavior among youth in a child welfare sample. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 28, 24-45.
Rajlic, G. & Gretton, H.M. (2010). An Examination of Two Sexual Recidivism Risk Measures in Adolescent Offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior (Vol. 37 No. 10, October 2010)
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Abtracts
1. Assessing risk of sexually abusive behavior among youth in a child welfare sample.
Statutory management of juvenile sexual offenders demands reliable, valid methods for assessing the risk posed by these youth. This study examined the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II using samples of adolescent and pre-adolescent boys who were wards of the Massachusetts Department of Social Services. The base rate for sexual recidivism among the adolescents (14-16%) is generally in line with what has been reported. The equivalent base rate for the pre-adolescents (25-28%), however, was notably higher. Although the J-SOAP-II was developed for adolescents, the scale also worked with the pre-adolescents in predicting sexual recidivism over 7 years, with AUC values of 0.77, 0.74, 0.77, and 0.80 for Scales 1, 3, 4, and Total among the pre-adolescents and AUC values of 0.80, 0.82, and 0.83 for Scales 1, 4, and Total among the adolescents. Discussion focuses on extant J-SOAP research and sample dependent variability, as well as social policy implications.
2. An Examination of Two Sexual Recidivism Risk Measures in Adolescent Offenders
The present study explored the predictive validity of two measures designed to assess risk for sexual recidivism in adolescent sexual offenders (ASO), the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II and the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism, in the context of an antisociality-based typology of adolescent sexual offenders. The authors distinguished between adolescent sexual offenders with a history of general offending (delinquent ASO) and adolescent sexual offenders without a history of general offending (sex offense-only ASO). They found differential predictive accuracy of risk measures according to offender type: Both instruments predicted sexual recidivism in the sex offense-only ASO group (large effect sizes), whereas in the delinquent ASO group, the measures did not predict sexual recidivism beyond chance levels. Risk assessment in the context of an antisociality-based sex offender typology is discussed.